New in Canadian Affairs: Your humble newsletter purveyor sits down to talk about the pretend centre of the political universe, and the pros and cons of a government that's "Conservative in name only."
“Buck-a-beer” Ford may be effective in his communications, but he’s an absolute nightmare as leader. For a province which is so highly dependent on trade with the US, fanning the anti-US flames is not particularly prudent.
From the article:
“For all the flaws of Ford’s ‘Conservative-in-name-only’ approach, he is a talented communicator, and he has the best team of digital strategists currently working for an Ontario provincial party,” said Alexander Brown, a communications director with the National Citizens Coalition, a conservative advocacy group.
“[They] have proven themselves adept at communicating Ford’s blue-collar, relatable and serious every-man image.”
But Oliver Paré, a former head of engagement for the Ontario NDP, says the premier’s communication skills paper over sustained political failures, including on matters voters identify as priorities.
”His affable-politician style has allowed him to get away with the fact that he hasn’t delivered on his central promises, nor has he shored up any of the systems that we rely upon,”
(Oh, and there was also the issue of parcelling out greenbelt land to one of his buddies…)
I hope Ontario conservatives consider the New Blue Party, instead.
Very much agreed, Tony. I had quite a bit cut out for the sake of brevity/clarity. I lament those failures as well, and voted New Blue in the last election myself.
Some additional comments I wrote down that didn't make the cut:
1) The rubber doesn’t appear to be meeting the road. At present, the realities of Ontario policy point to housing that has stalled out and fallen behind its targets under the highest development costs in the country, average wait times in hospitals are now in the 19-hour range according to some studies, the province’s big subsidy bet on EVs has proven to be a disaster, and Queen’s Park shamefully looked the other way over the past few years of astonishing “diploma mill” grift, migrant crime and exploitation, and the industrial expansion of the illegal Brampton trucking industry.
2) I wouldn’t be surprised if the Ontario election has an impact on the federal election to come. By untethering themselves from the appearance of a strategic alliance with Justin Trudeau, the Poilievre Conservatives will start to wear some of Ford’s unpopularity among classical liberals and the left in Ontario. Already, we are seeing Mark Carney, the Liberals’ likely heir apparent, polling better in Ontario than Chrystia Freeland or Justin Trudeau.
By moving to secure an early provincial mandate, the Ford government hurts their federal, far-more-Conservative counterparts more than they help.
3) At this point, if you talk Ford with a Conservative campaigner, a politician, a third-party group, a business leader, a family trying to scrape by in Toronto, or a blue-collar trade, the conversation quickly turns to “He’s not actually conservative, this isn’t going well, but there’s no one else.”
4) On Ford perhaps creating more federal Conservatives on accident over the last few years:
For every abdication on the diploma mills changing the makeup of towns overnight, wage suppression and the temporary foreign worker replacement of many blue-collar or student jobs, violent, anti-social protest in Ontario’s streets, treatment via hallway healthcare, act of tariff bluster that reminds beleaguered business owners or parents of kids locked out of school under needlessly harsh Covid mandates, or thoughts of moving to Alberta, a new Poilievre supporter is all but cemented.
Thanks Alex for bringing this excellent piece to our attention. Mr. Forster has summed up the situation in an efficient manner. Doug may not be an ideal conservative, but his pragmatic approach will hopefully spare us from dealing with the newest generation of a Rea or Wynne.
Was relieved to see that Forster's article appeared in "Canadian Affairs". I first read it as "Global Affairs Canada". Yikes.
Very much agreed, Ted! Although he perhaps holds 60% of the DNA of the two of them...
Scary thought on Global Affairs. I worked for a Nato-affiliated 'non-profit' at one point, and let me tell you, the DFAIT conferences were a total scam. Even as a listless 24-year-old intern/volunteer, I could spot the waste from a mile away. Quite the racket. That tax trough is an ocean.
It will be interesting to see how successful the DOGE ends up being south of the border. Me thinks there will be some valuable lessons learned that could be applied up here.
With a secure enough majority, I could see (some) appetite for a well-communicated quasi-culling. Barring that, Canadians as a whole are largely indifferent to big government waste (to their own detriment, and the detriment of their wallets).
Appreciate this, Peter. Sorry to scare anyone with the thought this had been rolled up by Global Affairs! (Hey, better they support the Substack than provide $7 million for pan flute lessons for gender dysphoric orangutans in Borneo...)
"You dance with the one you brought," comes to mind. There is much that I wish he had gotten better in the last few years. I still believe he had a path to majorities by being more conservative, and not abdicating as hard as he has on many province-breaking files. But he has some good people on his team, who generally know what they're doing, even if the strategy is more calculated and cynical than it should be.
“Buck-a-beer” Ford may be effective in his communications, but he’s an absolute nightmare as leader. For a province which is so highly dependent on trade with the US, fanning the anti-US flames is not particularly prudent.
From the article:
“For all the flaws of Ford’s ‘Conservative-in-name-only’ approach, he is a talented communicator, and he has the best team of digital strategists currently working for an Ontario provincial party,” said Alexander Brown, a communications director with the National Citizens Coalition, a conservative advocacy group.
“[They] have proven themselves adept at communicating Ford’s blue-collar, relatable and serious every-man image.”
But Oliver Paré, a former head of engagement for the Ontario NDP, says the premier’s communication skills paper over sustained political failures, including on matters voters identify as priorities.
”His affable-politician style has allowed him to get away with the fact that he hasn’t delivered on his central promises, nor has he shored up any of the systems that we rely upon,”
(Oh, and there was also the issue of parcelling out greenbelt land to one of his buddies…)
I hope Ontario conservatives consider the New Blue Party, instead.
Very much agreed, Tony. I had quite a bit cut out for the sake of brevity/clarity. I lament those failures as well, and voted New Blue in the last election myself.
Some additional comments I wrote down that didn't make the cut:
1) The rubber doesn’t appear to be meeting the road. At present, the realities of Ontario policy point to housing that has stalled out and fallen behind its targets under the highest development costs in the country, average wait times in hospitals are now in the 19-hour range according to some studies, the province’s big subsidy bet on EVs has proven to be a disaster, and Queen’s Park shamefully looked the other way over the past few years of astonishing “diploma mill” grift, migrant crime and exploitation, and the industrial expansion of the illegal Brampton trucking industry.
2) I wouldn’t be surprised if the Ontario election has an impact on the federal election to come. By untethering themselves from the appearance of a strategic alliance with Justin Trudeau, the Poilievre Conservatives will start to wear some of Ford’s unpopularity among classical liberals and the left in Ontario. Already, we are seeing Mark Carney, the Liberals’ likely heir apparent, polling better in Ontario than Chrystia Freeland or Justin Trudeau.
By moving to secure an early provincial mandate, the Ford government hurts their federal, far-more-Conservative counterparts more than they help.
3) At this point, if you talk Ford with a Conservative campaigner, a politician, a third-party group, a business leader, a family trying to scrape by in Toronto, or a blue-collar trade, the conversation quickly turns to “He’s not actually conservative, this isn’t going well, but there’s no one else.”
4) On Ford perhaps creating more federal Conservatives on accident over the last few years:
For every abdication on the diploma mills changing the makeup of towns overnight, wage suppression and the temporary foreign worker replacement of many blue-collar or student jobs, violent, anti-social protest in Ontario’s streets, treatment via hallway healthcare, act of tariff bluster that reminds beleaguered business owners or parents of kids locked out of school under needlessly harsh Covid mandates, or thoughts of moving to Alberta, a new Poilievre supporter is all but cemented.
Thanks Alex for bringing this excellent piece to our attention. Mr. Forster has summed up the situation in an efficient manner. Doug may not be an ideal conservative, but his pragmatic approach will hopefully spare us from dealing with the newest generation of a Rea or Wynne.
Was relieved to see that Forster's article appeared in "Canadian Affairs". I first read it as "Global Affairs Canada". Yikes.
Very much agreed, Ted! Although he perhaps holds 60% of the DNA of the two of them...
Scary thought on Global Affairs. I worked for a Nato-affiliated 'non-profit' at one point, and let me tell you, the DFAIT conferences were a total scam. Even as a listless 24-year-old intern/volunteer, I could spot the waste from a mile away. Quite the racket. That tax trough is an ocean.
It will be interesting to see how successful the DOGE ends up being south of the border. Me thinks there will be some valuable lessons learned that could be applied up here.
With a secure enough majority, I could see (some) appetite for a well-communicated quasi-culling. Barring that, Canadians as a whole are largely indifferent to big government waste (to their own detriment, and the detriment of their wallets).
Thanks for the reference to Globe... (Thanks, Ted. I initially saw it the same way😂.) I mean 'Canadian Affairs'.
That is a fine article and spot-on about how Ford operates. I react to Ford the same way that Libby Robinson (from Sam's article) does.
He's not the perfect Conservative but, he is relatable to most Ontarians.
Appreciate this, Peter. Sorry to scare anyone with the thought this had been rolled up by Global Affairs! (Hey, better they support the Substack than provide $7 million for pan flute lessons for gender dysphoric orangutans in Borneo...)
"You dance with the one you brought," comes to mind. There is much that I wish he had gotten better in the last few years. I still believe he had a path to majorities by being more conservative, and not abdicating as hard as he has on many province-breaking files. But he has some good people on his team, who generally know what they're doing, even if the strategy is more calculated and cynical than it should be.
And it could be much, much worse.